Amid Fertilizer Shortage, US Holds Talks with Belarus – May Need to Negotiate with Russia

As a consequence of the ongoing US conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply of not only oil and LNG but also several other products  including fertilizers has been severely impacted. Countries in the Persian Gulf supply approximately 30% of the world’s fertilizer. Due to the shortages, fertilizer prices have gone up significantly, impacting farmers worldwide, particularly in the US, where farmers are already struggling with the high cost of diesel fuel.

With the growing discontent among US farmers toward the Trump administration, the government is now seeking alternative suppliers. The administration has been in discussions with Belarus regarding the supply of potash fertilizer. However, any potential agreement between the US and Belarus may require talk with Russia concerning their deliveries, according to US special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, who spoke to The Atlantic.

Coale said  “If the West is buying potash, then they’ve got to deal with the Russians and the Belarusians. So you’re sitting down at a table, haggling over price or finding routes to get it out.” He added, “When people talk, it’s a good thing,” as the discussions could help normalize relations.

The Atlantic  reported that these talks involve also Russia because European countries have not agreed to ease their sanctions on Belarus and have refused to allow the transport of potash through EU territories. This means the fertilizer would likely need to be transported eastward through Russia before reaching international markets, making the Rusaia key party to the deal.

However, the core issue lies more with US policy than with Europe. The US has recently imposed additional sanctions on Russia and was a key initiator of the Ukraine conflict during the Biden administration, with the Trump administration following a similar approach. Having started two wars, the US is now facing the consequences of the conflicts it initiated.