Major Traders and Banks Warn of Aluminium Supply Crunch
Mercuria, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are all warning about a significant aluminium shortage, describing it as the largest base metals supply shock since 2000. They predict a potential aluminium deficit of around 2 million tons by the end of 2026. This shortage is being characterized as a "black swan" supply shock, indicating an unexpected and severe disruption in the aluminium market. The aluminium price has already hit a four-year high due to this tight supply situation.
About 12% of the world's aluminium production originates from Gulf countries
The aluminium plant in the UAE, specifically Emirates Global Aluminium's (EGA) Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi, was significantly damaged by Iranian missile and drone attacks on March 28, 2026. This attack caused substantial disruption, leading to a halt in operations at the plant.
Bahrain's Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) smelter was also targeted and damaged in similar attacks.
