Sweeping the Strait of Hormuz for mines may take weeks, delaying shipping traffic
Clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz could delay the resumption of normal shipping traffic by several weeks, even after a preliminary agreement to reopen the strategic waterway, according to shipping and maritime security sources. The operation is expected to involve a combination of conventional minesweepers and state-of-the-art underwater drones working in tandem, with assessments from five Western maritime security sources indicating the process could take 40 to 50 days before insurers, shipping firms, and oil companies consider it safe enough to resume transits.
That timeline could hold up tens of millions of barrels of oil from reaching global markets, compounding the supply already interrupted since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28. Based on pre-war export flows, the blockage has effectively sealed off a significant portion of Gulf oil output at a time when stockpiles in the world’s largest economies are nearing their lowest levels since at least 2003, according to an analysis last week from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Although Iran and the United States have quietly facilitated the passage of some vessels through the blockaded waterway in recent weeks, shipping officials continue to urge extreme caution. Their warnings come after both sides announced on Sunday that they had reached a preliminary agreement to end hostilities and reopen the strait—a development that raised hopes but did not eliminate the immediate dangers.
"We still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety & security officer at the shipping association BIMCO. "The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line, and mine-free routes need to be established before we can confidently advise a return to normal operations."
Analysts forecast that Brent prices are likely not to dip significantly below $80 per barrel.
